Prepare Now: NOAA’s Shocking Hurricane Forecast and How It Could Impact You

If you are in a part of the United States that experiences hurricanes, you know how dangerous they can be, and the bad news is that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects the upcoming hurricane season to produce an above-average number of storms, with up to 13 hurricanes likely to occur, and seven being severe.

Key Scientific Factors Contributing to Storm Formation

Several factors contribute to this increased activity, including near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the transition to La Nina from El Nino.

• Near-record warm ocean temperatures will help provide more energy to fuel storm development.

• La Nina reduces wind shear in the tropics, which is conducive to hurricane formation, and the transition from one of the strongest El Ninos in recent history can have a big impact on hurricane activity.

• Weaker trade winds in the Atlantic will allow storms to grow and intensify without disruption.

• An above-normal monsoon season can produce African easterly waves, creating some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms.

Technological Innovations and Forecasting

However, NOAA is committed to providing life-saving information, which will include AI-enabled language translations and new forecast graphics depicting inland wind threats.

"With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering"

- NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D

NOAA will also start improving public advisories to warn residents of danger in real-time, and they will begin using new forecasting models, like the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) and SDCON,  for a more accurate prediction of hurricane intensity.

Upgrades to observational systems, including coastal weather buoys, Directional Wave Spectra Drifters, Saildrones, underwater gliders, and the Streamsonde dropsonde, will provide real-time data to help scientists better understand air-sea interactions to help improve forecasting.

Preparedness Is Essential

With the unpredictability and potential severity of one or more hurricanes looming over our heads, it’s important to prepare so you can stay calm and get to safety.

• Stay informed about potential storms and mark your calendar for June 1st, which is the official start of hurricane season. It will last until November 30th.

• Establish a family plan for how you will contact each other and where you will meet if separated.

• Identify multiple evacuation routes from your home and community.

• Store one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days.

• Create an emergency kit with non-perishable food, a flashlight, batteries, a first aid kit, medications, clothing, bedding, and hygiene products for you, your family, and your pets.

• Install storm shutters or board up windows with plywood and ensure the doors are secure.

• Bring in outdoor furniture, decorations, and other objects that could become projectiles.

• Charge all of your devices and consider a generator to handle power outages.

• Ensure that you have good insurance and that it’s up to date.

"Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today"

- FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks