NASA has recently made a discovery that has been causing quite a stir. It seems they have identified an asteroid that has a 1 in 83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032. While the odds are low, this discovery has caught the attention of astronomers worldwide, and it’s natural to wonder if we should be worried about it. Here is what we know so far.
About the asteroid
NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) detected the asteroid that they now call 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. It identified the space rock moving at high speed through our solar system. Further observations confirmed that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 100 meters (130-330 feet) in diameter, which is about the size of a football field.
After its discovery, scientists were able to calculate its trajectory, and the data revealed a 1.2% probability (1 in 83 chance) of impact, making it one of the most potentially dangerous asteroids in recent history. Torino Scale rating of 3 out of 10, meaning it warrants attention but is not an immediate threat.
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What kind of damage could 2024 YR4 cause?
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the damage would depend on its size, speed, and impact location. While it’s not a “planet killer,” it could still cause significant destruction, especially if it’s closer to 100 meters and were to land in a large city or the ocean, where it might create a tsunami that causes major damage to coastal cities.
If the asteroid is closer to 40 meters, it may disintegrate in the atmosphere, like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013, which caused injuries and damaged buildings. Despite the alarming odds, experts caution against panic as much more info is needed, and this wouldn’t be the first that scientists ruled out after further study.
What happens next?
Astronomers will continue tracking 2024 YR4 over the coming months to gather more data and determine if the risk level changes. If it remains a danger, space agencies like NASA and ESA could consider deflection strategies, such as the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) method, which successfully altered an asteroid’s path in 2022. However, there has been no mention of that yet.
Are there any other asteroids currently considered dangerous?
Yes, some other asteroids that scientists are monitoring include Bennu, a 500-meter-wide asteroid that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in the late 2100s. Apophis, which NASA thought was dangerous, now looks like it will pass by safely.
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