Scientists have recently announced that they discovered an asteroid on a path that could put it on a collision course with Earth in 2032. While most of us were hoping that the chance of a strike would go down after we studied it more, the reality is that the risk actually went up.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. Its size is comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, where an asteroid caused significant destruction over a vast area in Siberia.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a rating of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating that while it shouldn’t be an extinction-level event, it warrants the attention of astronomers to help humanity prepare if needed.
The European Space Agency initially estimated a 1.3% chance of collision; however, this has now risen to approximately 2.3%, which is equivalent to a one-in-43 chance. Historically, initial impact probabilities for newly discovered asteroids often decrease as more data becomes available. For instance, asteroid 99942 Apophis was once considered a significant threat, but further observations eventually ruled out any possibility of impact.
The fact that the chance of impact went up is attracting attention; however, it’s important to note that there remains a 97.7% chance that 2024 YR4 will not collide with Earth.
In the event that a collision becomes inevitable, there are several deflection strategies in place:
- NASA’s DART mission successfully demonstrated that we can alter an asteroid’s trajectory through a deliberate collision.
- Spacecraft might be able to use gravity tractors to exert gravitational force to change the asteroid’s path gradually.
- As a last resort, scientists might try detonating nuclear explosions near the asteroid to deflect or fragment it, though this method presents significant technical and legal challenges.
Right now, the meteor is actually headed away from Earth but will return in 2028, giving scientists another chance to study it and determine its trajectory one more time before 2032.
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What would happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
If it struck, the impact could be similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened a large forested area in Siberia. It would cause a lot of damage, especially in a city, but it would not be an extinction-level event like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Should we be worried?
Not yet. While the increased probability might sound scary the chances of impact are still low. Scientists are closely monitoring the situation, and planetary defense systems are improving.
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